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The focus of this entry is normative decision theory. This amounts to a minimal account of rationality, one that sets aside more substantial questions about appropriate desires and reasonable beliefs, given the situation at hand.

The key issue for a minimal account is the treatment of uncertainty. The orthodox normative decision theory, expected utility (EU) theory, essentially says that, in situations of uncertainty, one should prefer the option with greatest expected desirability or value.

Section 2 describes the development of normative decision theory in terms of ever more powerful and flexible measures of preferences. Section 3 discusses the two best-known versions of EU theory. Section 4 considers the broader significance of EU theory for practical action, inference, and valuing. Section 5 turns to prominent challenges to EU theory, while Section 6 addresses sequential decisions, and how this richer setting bears on debates about rational preferences.

The two central concepts in decision theory are preferences and prospects (or equivalently, options). This rough definition makes clear that preference is a comparative attitude. This section considers some elementary issues of interpretation mental test set the stage for introducing (in the next section) the decision tables and expected utility rule that for many is the familiar subject matter of decision theory.

Further interpretive questions regarding preferences and prospects will be addressed later, as they arise. Let us nonetheless proceed by first introducing basic candidate properties of (rational) preference over options and only afterwards turning to questions of interpretation.

The above can be taken as a preliminary characterisation of rational preference over options. Whether or not Completeness is a plausible rationality constraint depends both on what sort of options are under consideration, and how we interpret preferences over these options. If the option set includes all kinds of states of affairs, then Completeness is not immediately compelling. For instance, it is questionable whether an agent should be able to compare the option whereby two additional people in the world are made literate with the option whereby two additional people reach the age of sixty.

If, on the other hand, all options in the set are quite similar to each other, say, all options are investment portfolios, then Completeness is more compelling. But even if we do not restrict the kinds of options under consideration, the question of whether or not Completeness should journal of mathematical analysis and applications satisfied journal of mathematical analysis and applications on the meaning of preference. By contrast, if preferences are understood rather as mental attitudes, typically considered judgments about whether an option is better or more desirable than another, then the doubts about Completeness alluded to above are pertinent (for further discussion, see Mandler 2001).

Most philosophers and decision theorists subscribe to the latter interpretation of preference as a kind of judgment that explains, as opposed to being identical with, choice dispositions and resultant choice behaviour (see, e.

Moreover, many hold that Completeness is not rationally required, since they think that rationality makes demands only on the judgments an agent actually holds, but says nothing of whether a judgement must be held in the first sapiosexual. Nevertheless, following Richard Jeffrey (1983), most decision theorists suggest that rationality requires that preferences be coherently extendible.

This means that even if your preferences are not complete, it should be possible to complete la roche forum without violating any journal of mathematical analysis and applications the conditions that are rationally required, in particular Transitivity.

A recent challenge to Transitivity turns on heterogeneous sets of options, as per the discussion of Completeness above. But here a different interpretation of preference is brought to bear on the comparison of options. The idea is that preferences, or judgments of desirability, may be responsive to a salience condition. In such a case, some argue (e. With respect to the car example, Broome would argue that the desirability of a fully specified option should not vary, simply in virtue of what other options it is compared with.

Either the choice context affects how the agent perceives the option at hand, in which case the description of the option should reflect this, or else the choice context does not affect the option. Either way, Transitivity should be satisfied. This is the so-called money pump argument (see Davidson et.

So in a few steps, each of which was consistent with your preferences, you find yourself in a situation that is clearly worse, by your own lights, than your original situation. Hence, the argument goes, there is something (instrumentally) galvus novartis about your intransitive preferences.

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Comments:

10.02.2019 in 15:24 Ермил:
На тебе боже что мне не гоже гыгыгы :)

15.02.2019 in 19:07 Тихон:
Сожалею, что не могу сейчас поучаствовать в обсуждении. Не владею нужной информацией. Но с удовольствием буду следить за этой темой.